By Edoardo Molinari
In his regular Rolex Series column for the DP World Tour, Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes and the players to watch out for at the Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship.
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A three-time DP World Tour winner, the Italian has become one of golf's leading data analysts for a host of established players and will aim to help Europe to a third consecutive Ryder Cup triumph next year in his role as a Vice Captain to skipper Luke Donald.
Analysing the numbers, Molinari previews the fourth Rolex Series event of the season at Yas Links as the DP World Tour Play-Offs get under way.
Looking Back: Aaron Rai's victory in 2025
Rai's victory 12 months ago was his second in a Rolex Series event and since then he has gone on to become a Major winner at the US PGA Championship.
Tommy Fleetwood shared the lead after round one but Rai caught him after 36 holes and led by one from his fellow Englishman on Saturday night.
Come Sunday evening the duo could not be separated at 25 under and after playing the 18th in almost identical fashion on their first trip back in the play-off, it was Rai who made his birdie putt to take the title.
And while they may have played the closing hole similarly in sudden death, the 72 holes that got them there could not have been much more different.
Rai's weapon was his iron play: gaining him a field-leading 1.97 shots per round in appproach and 2.9 shots per round tee to green, the second best in the field.
He gained 1.8 shots per round from 125 to 225 yards and in his second-round 64 he was 4.5 shots gained on approach, the second best round of the week by that metric.
His putting by contrast could hardly have been more pedestrian as he gained 0.01 shots to be 34th in a 72-man field.
Fleetwood on the other hand worked wonders with the short stick, finishing fifth in putting at 1.4 shots per round gained but picked up just 1.6 shots tee to green.
He made just one bogey all week with that profile so there is clearly more than one way to succeed at Yas Links.
Holes to watch out for
Hole 15 - 486 yards, par four
• The hardest hole on the course since the tournament moved to November: it averaged 4.07 in 2024 and 2025, with 15% birdies against 19% bogeys or worse. It is the longest par four on the course and the hardest green to hit: only 70% of the field hits it in regulation.
• Three quarters of the field find the fairway, but missing it costs 0.55 shots: 3.93 from the fairway against 4.48 from anywhere else.
Hole 17 - 204 yards, par three
• The hardest par three and the second hardest hole in November: 3.05 on average, 15% birdies against 18% bogeys or worse. Only 74% of the field hits the green.
Hole 12 - 484 yards, par four
• Third hardest hole in November at 3.99 with 16% birdies against 13% bogeys or worse. 79% of the field hits the fairway but missing it is the most expensive miss of any par four on the course: 0.57 shots (3.88 from the fairway against 4.44 from anywhere else).
Hole 2 - 534 yards, par five
• The easiest hole on the course: 73% birdies or better in November, including 11% eagles, with 86% of the field going for the green in two.
• It is still the most expensive fairway to miss on the course: 4.04 from the fairway against 4.63 from anywhere else, a 0.59-shot penalty. From the rough only 39% of the players go for the green.
Hole 18 - 646 yards, par five
• The one par five that is not a birdie hole: 4.86 in November, with 34% birdies or better against 17% bogeys or worse. Only 45% of the field go for the green in two, and the second shot here has the largest spread of outcomes of any shot on the course. That matches the hole itself which has the biggest spread of scores on the course
• Going for it pays: from the fairway at 260-290 yards, players who went for the green averaged 4.51 against 5.00 for those who laid up, and from 290-330 yards it was still 4.58 against 5.03. The tee shot decides it: the 11% who find a fairway bunker average 5.34, against 4.74 from the fairway.
In focus: Does change of date mean change of tactics?
When the tournament moved from January to November in 2025, the course changed with it.
In the two November editions, the field averaged 3.2 under par per round, against level par in January 2022 and 2023, with an average wind of 5mph against 18mph and 9mph.
As the wind went up, so did the scoring, with the the winning totals going from ten under and 18 under to 24 under and 25 under.
In November the tee shot separates the field more than at most venues, accounting for 35-38% of the difference between players over the week, against a 27% average at DP World Tour events since 2021.
This is even more pronounced when you consider the difference when the event was played in January was only 14-20%.
Length also pays asthe longest quarter of the field off the tee, 11 yards longer than average, beat the field by about 1.0 shot per round on the par fours and par fives, while the shortest quarter lost 0.9, a gap of more than seven shots over 72 holes.
Fairways are easier to hit in November (70% against 61% in January) but missing them still costs 0.40 shots on average, and 0.55 to 0.59 on two, 12 and 15.
Players in the field who have gained the most off the tee at Yas in November are Rory McIlroy (1.4 shots per round over eight rounds), Fleetwood (+0.7) and Francesco Laporta (+0.6).
Driving keeps you in the race but the irons have won it: Paul Waring in 2024 and Rai in 2025 were both first in the field on approach and only 12th and 19th off the tee.
Players to watch
In November this is a birdie race (24 and 25 under par won the last two editions) on a course that rewards length off the tee and great iron play: three of the four par fives are reachable for most of the field, and the last two winners were the best approach players of the week.
Stars
• Rory McIlroy has the best course record in the field at 2.2 shots gained per round over 12 rounds and has finished third in both November editions. He is also the best player off the tee in the field over the last 12 months at +1.05, the skill that separates most here in November, and is the second highest rated player in the world in our model.
• Tommy Fleetwood lost a play-off here last year and was sixth the year before, matching McIlroy at +2.4 shots per round in November. He is the third highest rated player in the world in our model and has the best form in the field over the last six months.
• Aaron Rai won this with his irons 12 months ago and is the third best approach player in the field over the last 12 months at +0.7 shots per round.
Outsiders
• Tyrrell Hatton has three top seven finishes in four starts at Yas Links and is +1.6 shots per round over 16 rounds. That is the third best course record in the field even after a 41st place last year.
• Victor Perez won here in 2023 at 18 under and was +3.3 shots per round that week. He has the second best course record in the field at +1.6 shots per round over eight rounds) which is built on his short game (+0.65) and putting (+0.8).
• Daniel Hillier was tied fifth here last year at 22 under with 1.9 shots gained per round putting and has been the fifth best player off the tee in the field over the last 12 months, which suits Yas in November.
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