By Edoardo Molinari
Three-time DP World Tour winner and Europe's victorious Ryder Cup Vice Captain Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes at Jumeirah Golf Estates and the players to watch out for as one of golf's leading data analysts.
Looking Back: Rory McIlroy's victory in 2024
There is no doubt that the Earth course at Jumeirah Golf Estates is one that suits Rory McIlroy's eye. Not only is he a three-time winner but he has played in nearly every edition since 2009 (the exception being 2020) with 11 further top tens. In that span of 15 events, he has only finished outside of the top ten on three occassions: T11 (2011), T20 (2018) and 22nd (2023).
Last year saw him join Jon Rahm with three DP World Tour Championship victories, and while it was quite a unique road to the title, his experience shone through as he relied on his strong trademark long-game despite an unusually disappointing week with his short game. Across the week, he gained around +1.8 shots per round off the tee and +1.3 on approach play, with +3.3 shots gained per round overall. Yet he struggled slightly with his short game, losing -0.7 shots per round around the green, which is not a typical occurance for the five-time Major winner.
Another key to his victory was taking advantage of the start and end to his rounds, gaining nearly 60% of his shots in the first six holes and then another 35% in the last six holes. His struggles around the greens were more evident from the fairway as he lost 0.6 shots per round on chip shots from the fairway, but that just shows how tricky it can be around the greens at Jumeirah if even someone like Rory couldn’t find his touch.
The Fortinet holes to watch out for
Hole 14 (Par 5, 626 yards)
• This is a reachable par 5 with a very tricky second shot, as the water looms right of the green and the fairway and the green slope right into it.
• The long hitters have a huge advantage here as they can make the second shot much easier with a long drive.
• Going for it in 2 is always the right strategy, as you almost double the chances for a birdie (50% going for it vs 27% laying up)
• There is no bailout on the second shot as missing the green left leaves a difficult chip shot. Players from the left side of the green leave the chip shot 15ft away from the hole on average. The best miss is always the front bunker.
Hole 15 (Par 5, 626 yards)
• This is another short par 4 where players will face different options off the tee. Usually with the back pins everyone hits driver while with the short pins you have to make sure to hit the fairway to stop the ball and also you have to take into account how good you are with wedges. Some players would rather have a full wedge than a 50 yds shot over a bunker to a tight pin. You will hear some interesting player-caddie conversations on this tee!
• Even though it is a short par 4, there have only been 27% of birdies historically but only 11% from the rough. You have to be on the fairway on this hole to give yourself a birdie chance.
Hole 18 (Par 5, 651 yards)
• This is one of the most exciting finishing holes of the year. Depending on the wind conditions and the tee setup, it can become a reachable par five or a very difficult one where no one gets home in two shots. The stream splits the fairway in half and you need to take a decision off the tee on which side you want to be.
• Historically it’s been slightly better aiming for the right side of the fairway if you are long enough, but from the tee generally you need a carry of 290 yds over water to reach that side of the fairway. Other players like to lay up on the left side but the second shot becomes a lot more difficult.
• Hitting the fairway is key here as it improves the scoring average by almost 0.480 shots compared to missing the fairway.
The Fortinet Threat Score demonstrates the average score to par for the field, enabling fans around the world to track in real time how players are faring. To keep up to date, access Course Stats via the Leaderboard tab.
What are the keys to performing well over the Earth course?
This is a course that, similarly to Yas Links, suits long drivers and great putters.
The long hitters can easily reach all the par 5s and they can also carry some bunkers to make the course a lot easier. The greens are relatively easy to hit so good putters can also separate themselves from the field.
If you look at previous winners it’s mostly been great drivers (McIlroy, Rahm, Nicolai Højgaard) or great putters (Fitzpatrick, Willett).
Players to watch
The Stars
Rory McIlroy is again one of the favorites again, like any week of the year. He loves playing in the Middle East and he is the best player in the field. He can take full advantage of his driving around Jumeirah and he has a great record around here.
Tommy Fleetwood has been a serious contender at Jumeirah. Now he is based there full-time so he will have some local knowledge. He struggled on the greens at Jumeirah in the last three years but his tee to green performances have been second to none.
Ludvig Åberg is another player who is excellent off the tee and who should do well around here. He has been driving it great since the US Open and he could seriously contend on his debut at Jumeirah.
Outsiders
Tom McKibbin is coming off a dominating win in Hong Kong against a good field. The course should suit his great driving skills. This year he has been fantastic off the tee again and his short game improved a lot. He could be a surprise winner against such a strong field.
Kristoffer Reitan is another great driver with good putting skills. He will do his best to catch Marco Penge for the top PGA Tour card. He is a rookie around Jumeirah but he can make a lot of birdies.
Laurie Canter is fighting for one of those 10 PGA Tour cards. He played really well three weeks ago in Korea and he is one of the best players on Tour off the tee. He also enjoys playing desert golf as he won in Bahrain earlier this year.
