BMW PGA Championship: Edoardo Molinari picks out the key holes and players to watch

By Edoardo Molinari

Three-time DP World Tour winner and Europe's Ryder Cup Vice Captain Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes at Wentworth Club and the players to watch out for as one of golf's leading data analysts.

Looking back: Billy Horschel's victory in 2024

It was an incredible week on the greens for Horschel. He played only slightly better than average from tee to green but he gained 2.4 shots/round with his putting, from mostly outside six feet. Off the tee, the American only gained 0.3 shots/round, which is a pretty low number for a winner and he also only gained 0.2 shots/round on his approach play.

Rory McIlroy, who lost in the play-off in 2024 that also featured Thriston Lawrence, also had a great week on the greens, gaining 1.9 shots/round. He was much better than Horschel off the tee, gaining 1.5 shots/round on the field, but his approach play between 125 and 175 yards let him down as he lost -0.8 shots/round in that area.

The Fortinet holes to watch out for

Hole 1 (Par 4, 473 yards)

• The toughest hole over the West Course in the last few years. The scoring average is usually around 4.28, so an opening par is a great score

• Historically there have been only 5% of birdies against 31% of bogeys or worse

• It is a daunting opening tee shot as only 25% of players hit the fairway

• There are two options off the tee: hit a driver to carry the right bunker but the ball will most likely finish in the rough on the downslope or lay up near to the bunker with a fairway wood. Historically hitting driver is the best option, but it depends also on the pin position and how much rough there is on the right side over the bunker

Hole 15 (Par 4, 491 yards)

• This is the most important tee shot of the round, as the difference between hitting or missing the fairway is more than 0.500 shots/round

• Historically there have been only 13% of birdies against 24% of bogeys or worse

• It plays well over par with a scoring average of 4.14 and while 70% of players hit the fairway off the tee, only 53% of players hit the green on this hole

• The penalty for missing the fairway on this hole is massive and there isn’t any bail out so a great tee shot is required

Hole 18 (Par 5, 523 yards)

• A great finishing hole as it has the biggest variability in scores of all the 18 holes

• It plays just under par with a scoring average of 4.74 and historically there have been 43% of birdies against 15% bogeys or worse, which is a very high bogey rate for a par five

• Once again the tee shot is important but the second shot is even more so as the water hazard looms short and left of the green, making it the most difficult approach shot on the course

• The Sunday pin is the easiest one as you can bail out right of the green and have a reasonably easy up and down

The Fortinet Threat Score demonstrates the average score to par for the field, enabling fans around the world to track in real time how players are faring. To keep across, access Course Stats via the Leaderboard tab.

What are the keys to performing well at Wentworth?

This is a course that suits accuracy off the tee and great iron players.

The penalty for missing the fairway or the green is pretty high compared to other courses.

Players to watch

The stars

Tommy Fleetwood had his breakthrough on the PGA TOUR, winning the Tour Championship and the FedExCup last month. He has been playing some remarkable golf lately and he should be recharged after two weeks off.

Viktor Hovland had a solid season, despite some struggles off the tee. A player like him can get around Wentworth without hitting driver too often and his stellar iron play can really set him apart around the West Course.

Shane Lowry really enjoys playing Wentworth. He has some great results in the past and he is a very accurate player who also possesses a solid iron game. He had a great first half of 2025 and Wentworth could give him the sparkle he needs to reignite his year.

The outsiders

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is the type of player that could do really well around here. He is one of the best players in approach play this year and Wentworth should be a great course for him as he makes his BMW PGA Championship debut.

Difficult to consider Aaron Rai as an outsider as he already has a PGA TOUR win under his belt but he is not one of the top stars and he will want to prove that he belongs in the upper tier of golfers. He is one of the most accurate players in the world and his lack of distance shouldn’t be much of a problem around the West Course.

Joost Luiten is another player whose approach play is second to none. He is having a tough season on the greens but if he can turn that around this week he will contend on Sunday.

The data behind the top 10

The below data sourced from IMG Arena, a leading sports betting service and content hub, is for the top ten players' performance to the rest of the field over the West Course at Wentworth since 2021. This week sees 41 players tee it up at the BMW PGA Championship for a fifth year in a row.

Bold denotes past champions since 2021